Thinking Better
认知升级
This path addresses one concrete question: why do intelligent people make bad judgments? The answer is not intelligence, but whether you own a set of thinking devices you can reuse.
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Level 01
Two Systems of Mind
Intuition is fast and cheap; reasoning is slow and lazy. Start by seeing your own defaults.
Thinking, Fast and Slow
《思考，快与慢》
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Level 02
Identify Noise and Bias
Bias is systematic error in one direction; noise is random scatter. Both need treatment.
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
《噪声》
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Level 03
Understand Probability and Luck
Separating outcome from skill is the hardest and most valuable act of detachment.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
《随机漫步的傻瓜》
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Level 04
Improve Forecasting
Forecasting is a trainable skill, not a gift.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
《超预测：预见未来的艺术和科学》
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Level 05
Think in Systems
When a problem keeps recurring, it is usually the structure, not the people.
Thinking in Systems: A Primer
《系统之美：决策者的系统思考》
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Level 06
Gain from Uncertainty
The endpoint is not predicting the future but arranging to benefit whichever future arrives.
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder
《反脆弱：从不确定性中获益》